Campaign 2020

Poll: Biden leads Trump in Texas; Majority of dems want O'Rourke to challenge Sen. Cornyn

Home-town hopeful O'Rourke doing 'OK' in the race

The Lone Star State is speaking up about the 2020 race for the White House. 

According to a new poll by Quinnipiac University, if Former Vice President Joe Biden were to win the Democratic nomination and challenge President Donald Trump, Texas would lean 48% Biden compared to 44% Trump. 

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,159 Texas voters from May 29 to June 4. The margin of error was +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 407 Democrats and Democratic leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.8 percentage points, including the design effect. 

Interesting new numbers show President Trump polling over former El Paso Congressman Beto O'Rourke at 48% to 45%. O'Rourke lost his 2018 U.S. Senate race to Republican incumbent Ted Cruz by a slim margin, running on what he called a grassroots campaign and visiting each of Texas' 254 counties. 

Texas voters approve 44-33% of the job Cornyn is doing in the Senate, whereas 50-42% approve Sen. Ted Cruz.  

The new Quinnipiac poll asked Texans about O'Rourke dropping his race for the White House and instead going up against U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is seeking reelection in 2020. According to the poll, Texas Democrat support for an O'Rourke Senate race is strong, with 60-to-27% wanting O'Rourke to challenge Sen. Cornyn.

Crowded Democratic Field

Compared with other Democratic candidates, President Trump is polling at 46% to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45%. Vermont Sen. and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is polling at 44% compared with Trump at 47%. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is also polling at 44% compared with Trump at 46%. California Sen. Kamala Harris is at 43% matched up Trump at 47%. And former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro is at 43% in his own state compared with Trump's 46%. 

Diving into the Trump-Biden Matchup

The Quinnipiac poll found, in a Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54-39% as men back Trump 50-42%. White voters back Trump 60-33% percent, but Biden leads 86-7% percent among black voters and 59-33% among Hispanic voters. 

Republican continue to back Trump 90-8% and Biden leads 94-4% among Democrats and 55-33% among independent voters. 

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a release. 

"In historically red-leaning Texas, the report for the rest of the Democratic field is not so bad either, which could spell trouble for President Trump. It is the largest state in the country with a Republican edge.

"The president, who is on the wrong side of a too-close-to-call matchup with Biden, barely inches up in similar matchups with all the other Democrats. 

"The data shows home-state hopeful, former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, is doing OK in the presidential matchup, but Democratic voters would prefer he leave the presidential campaign and run for the U.S. Senate," Brown added. 

How do Texans Feel About Pres. Trump's Progress?

Texas voters give Trump a split 48-49% job approval rating. Men approve 55-43%, as women disapprove 55-42%.

In recent weeks, Democrats in Washington, D.C. have amplified their calls for a Trump impeachment, citing suspicion of obstruction of justice following the release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report on 2016 Russian meddling and the fact that Mueller did not exonerate the president. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Texas voters say Congress should not try to impeach Trump by 60-34%. 

Democratic Primary

In Texas, Biden continues to lead the primary pack with 30% of Democrats and Democratic leaners, followed by 16% for O'Rourke, 15% for Sanders, 11% for Warren, 4% each for Harris and Castro and 3% for Buttigieg. No other Democratic candidate tops 2%. 

Biden leads among women, black and white voters and basically ties Sanders among Hispanic voters. The former vice president leads among moderate/conservative Democrats. Warren gets 27% of very liberal Democrats, with 18% for Biden and 17% for Sanders. 

About the Surveyor

Douglas Scwartz, Ph.D., conducts the Quinnipiac University polls using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. 


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